What Could Really Disrupt 2026

Welcome to The Margin, a newsletter designed to keep you on the leading edge of monetization.

In business, the difference between being ahead of the curve or slow to adapt is anything but marginal. The Margin aims to be the most useful, timely, and incisive ping that hits your inbox all week. It includes critical research and analyst insights to inform short and long-term decision making.

Low Probability, High Impact Predictions for 2026

2026 Year Ahead/2025 Year in Review webinar

In case you missed it, the MGI team held our annual “Year in Review/Year Ahead” webinar. Clients consistently tell us the “low probability, high impact” predictions are a high point of the year. In the style of our one-time colleague and widely admired market strategist Byron Wien, we present a short list of potential macro-economic events that could take place in 2026.

To be considered, an event has to have a probability of occurring of less than 15%. And each event has to have major consequences (“high impact”) if it does indeed take place. The predictions game is fool’s game, but with a little structure (probabilities and timing), these aim to stoke the imagination and inspire clients to think far beyond conventional wisdom.

The seven potential black swan events discussed were (in no order of priority or prediction):

1 // A major AI vendor has a material negative financial event. For example, if OpenAI were to stumble badly and require a bail-out or be sold in fire-sale (think Lehman Brothers), it would have major implications on the financial markets, valuations, and the near-term adoption of AI.

2 // China attacks Taiwan. While there is a low probability of this happening in 2026, if it does occur, the global economy will feel it mightily.

3 // US invades Venezuela. Hard to predict where energy prices would go. Conventional wisdom would suggest oil prices would go up, but a collapse in the price of crude is just a likely to follow. The adage “you invade it, you own it” would also hold true – and forecasting the precise cost of invading Venezuela is hard. But it’s probably more than anyone is currently imagining.

4 // Major grid problems are traced back to LLM(s). LLMs is a known energy hog. Some forecasts predict AI will consume as much energy annually as 22% of all US households. What would happen if an LLM brings down the grid?

5 // Hybrid war in Europe turns into a direct combat. The ground war in Ukraine has not spread troops and direct conflict into neighboring countries. But it could. And if it does, all bets would be off.

6 // Significant disruption in rare earth supply chain. While so-called “rare earths” are not rare, if the supply chain of rare earths were to be fundamentally disrupted, industries and economic activity far beyond IT would be thrown into chaos.

7 // On a positive note, if a major global brand announced a business breakthrough with AI, this would be alter the adoption curve of AI and change the course of business immediately. A “business breakthrough” in this case could be the realization of transformative results – akin to how Dell changed supply chains and flipped the cash flow of its business in the late 1990s or how Amazon changed the retail industry. If suddenly a major bank, for example, attributed the doubling of its profitability to the use of AI or a manufacturing company increased productivity by 25%, sustainably, it would force every CEO to direct massive investment towards the adoption of AI.

Watch the full 2026 Year Ahead/2025 Year in Review Webinar

MGI’s Recommended Holiday Reads

For truly last-minute shoppers and those looking for an engaging read over the holidays, here are our favorite books from 2025. In the event you receive one of these as a gift, dive in and we hope you will enjoy it as much as we did.

The Thinking Machine

Jensen Huang, NVIDIA, and the World’s Most Coveted Microchip. Even for old hands that have worked with this company, its competitors, suppliers and customers, this book is a revelation. More than a bio of Jensen Huang or hyping AI, it’s a window into what made NVIDIA a business success.

21 Letters on Life and Its Challenges

As much as we hate the label, Charles Handy really was a management guru. His practical, and often profound, books on organization and management were prescient. He foresaw the gig economy, remote working, and outsourced knowledge work. This concise series of letters from an eighty-seven-year-old man to his grandchildren is among his best writing.

Strength in What Remains

Pulitzer Prize winner Tracy Kidder (Soul of a New Machine remains a tech industry classic) tells the most improbable but true, story of Deogratias (“Deo”) Niyizonkiza. We had the humbling privilege of sharing an evening with Deo this year, and Kidder does as well as anyone could in describing Deo’s journey from being a medical student in Burundi to escaping the horror of Burundi’s civil war to being homeless in Central Park, and then graduating from Columbia, Harvard, and Dartmouth. Deo returned to Burundi and established a health clinic serving survivors of the Burundian genocide. You don’t have to be religious to feel the saintly aura of Deo and see what real forgiveness and healing look like.

1929: Inside the Greatest Crash in Wall Street History — and How It Shattered a Nation

We thought we knew the story of Black Friday, the Great Crash, and the preamble to the Great Depression. This reads as a thriller and, surprisingly, provides new insights and lessons. How closely the titans and rogues of 1929 resemble today’s cast of characters is left up to the reader to decide.

The AI Bubble: 2026 Software Valuation Update

Upcoming Webinar

Market bubbles eventually pop, and the AI bubble will be no different. With AI dominating conversations today, what’s the outlook for valuation multiples in 2026? Will AI-first start-ups continue to attract capital and super premium valuations? Will the shine return to traditional enterprise software categories?

MGI analysts will share fresh quantitative data on what factors are driving software valuations today, the M&A outlook and the probability of the IPO window opening in 2026.

Key issues include:

What factors are driving valuation multiples today and where are they headed?
Does profitability matter? Is the Rule of 40 relevant?
What are potential indicators of the AI bubble bursting?
What is the outlook for Software M&A? What are the tailwinds and headwinds?

Reserve Your Seat

For a confidential discussion with an MGI analyst, email us to schedule a private call.

The Future Is Metered: Puneet Gupta on How to Succeed with Usage-Based Models

The Margin Podcast, Episode 10

Andrew Dailey sits down with Puneet Gupta, CEO of Amberflo and architect of AWS’s early consumption billing systems, to break down what actually makes usage-based pricing work and why most companies struggle to execute it.

What you’ll learn:

Why usage, not price, becomes the system of record
The metering foundations most companies underestimate
How hybrid and prepaid models work in practice
Why CIOs increasingly own monetization success

Listen to this episode.

Industry News

Agiloft Appoints Jason Barnwell as Chief Legal Officer

Agiloft named former Microsoft legal executive Jason Barnwell as Chief Legal Officer, signaling increased focus on governance, compliance, and enterprise readiness. The appointment reflects Agiloft’s continued push upmarket, where regulatory scrutiny, risk management, and contract defensibility increasingly influence CLM buying decisions.

Agiloft Launches Enterprise Obligation Management

Agiloft also introduced an enterprise-grade obligation management capability as part of its AI-native CLM roadmap. The release targets a longstanding gap in CLM adoption, turning executed contracts into measurable, enforceable outcomes.

Cloud Coach Acquires JustOn

Cloud Coach acquired Salesforce-native billing provider JustOn, expanding its capabilities across project delivery, invoicing, and financial automation. The deal reflects rising demand for Salesforce-centric quote-to-cash workflows and continued consolidation among vendors serving services-led and mid-market organizations seeking fewer systems and tighter operational alignment.

Conga to Acquire PROS’ B2B CPQ and Pricing Business

Conga announced plans to acquire PROS’ B2B CPQ and pricing assets following PROS’ acquisition by Thoma Bravo. The move reinforces Conga’s strategy to expand beyond CLM into adjacent revenue technologies, while highlighting ongoing private equity–driven portfolio rationalization across CPQ, pricing, and monetization markets.

DealHub Acquires Subskribe, Extending its Capabilities in Quote-to-Revenue Capabilities

DealHub acquired Subskribe, a billing and revenue-management product, with the intention of bringing a suite of monetization functionality to its existing customers and prospects. The move continues a broader consolidation trend as vendors seek end-to-end monetization platforms offering a wider array of functionality.

NEC to Acquire CSG

NEC agreed to acquire CSG, strengthening its global digital transformation and monetization portfolio. The transaction underscores growing interest from large technology conglomerates in billing, customer engagement, and revenue platforms with strong telecom and services exposure. Future differentiation will hinge on CSG’s ability to modernize beyond its legacy core markets.

Stripe Acquires Metronome

Stripe signed a definitive agreement to acquire usage-based billing provider Metronome, reinforcing its strategic commitment to agile billing and consumption-based monetization. The acquisition underscores consolidation in the metering space, where scale advantages, constrained standalone upside, and aligned investor interests are accelerating strategic exits.

Upcoming Events

NRF 2026: Retail’s Big Show

January 11-13, 2026
New York, NY

MWC26 Barcelona

March 2-5, 2026
Barcelona

Conga Connect 2026

March 9-11, 2026
Orlando, FL

So What Have I Missed?

Our most recent and relevant research that will help you keep your finger on the pulse of AMP disciplines.

The Evergreen Archives

Curated past research that is still pertinent today.

That’s it for this issue of The Margin. If you’ve made it this far, we’ll certainly see you next time.

Warm wishes,

MGI Research